俄罗斯的阿富汗政策:目标、内容和影响

Russia’s Afghanistan Policy:Goals,Contents and Impacts

阿富汗系“一带一路”沿线一个十分重要的国家,其安全形势对中国西部特别是新疆地区的安全稳定有着至关重要的影响。在阿富汗历史上,英国、沙俄(苏联)、美国和印度等域外国家都曾踏上过这片神奇的国土,而上述国家在阿富汗的博弈也深刻影响了这个国家的现代化进程。中国在中亚地区及阿富汗推进“一带一路”建设时不仅应该多关注美国在该地区的政策,而且也应该关注另一个大国俄罗斯的阿富汗政策。无论是从历史还是现实的角度,俄罗斯在阿富汗都有着十分重要的影响。自塔利班政权倒台和阿富汗进入战后重建以来,俄罗斯始终是阿富汗经济社会重建和打击毒品贸易方面的一个十分重要的外部力量。特别是2014年以来,随着阿富汗及周边态势的变化和美国阿富汗政策的变化,俄罗斯也在思考并实施着本国的阿富汗新政策。目前,在美国考虑从阿富汗大幅撤军的背景下,俄罗斯将会继续在推动阿富汗社会稳定和经济社会重建方面发挥作用,但其政策也会根据阿富汗国内和地区形势的变化进行调整。本文分析了2014年以来俄罗斯的阿富汗政策的变化背景、政策的主要内容、政策实施面临的挑战及中国的应对策略,希望为外界了解俄罗斯的阿富汗政策提供一个有益的视角。

Afghanistan is an extremely important country along the Belt and Road,and its security situation has tremendous implications for security and stability in western China,and especially Xinjiang Province.Throughout Afghanistan ’ s history,Great Britain,Russia (the Soviet Union),the United States,India and other powers have all invaded the country,and their struggles for control over Afghanistan have deeply affected the process of its modernization.In advancing the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and Afghanistan,China should pay close attention not only to American policy in the region,but also to Russian policy. Russia ’ s historical and practical influences on Afghanistan are of great importance.Since the fall of the Taliban government,and Afghanistan ’ s collapse into war,Russia has been a critical external player in terms of Afghanistan ’ s economic and social reconstruction,as well as in terms of cracking down on the drug trade.Particularly since 2014,which saw shifts both at the regional level and in terms of American policy towards the country,Russia has been reflecting on and implementing a new policy towards Afghanistan.At present,with America considering a massive withdrawal of troops from the country,Russia will press ahead with promotion of social stability and socio-economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.While so,Russian policy will also adapt to domestic changes in Afghanistan and the regional environment.This article considers the background context of changes in Russia policy towards Afghanistan since 2014,the main components of that policy,challenges to policy implementation,and China ’ s policy response.It provides an insightful perspective into Russian policy towards Afghanistan.