内生视角下环境规制、产业集聚与城市绿色全要素生产率——以长江经济带城市为例

Research on Dynamic Effects of Green Total Factor Productivity From Environmental Regulation,Industrial Agglomeration in Endogenous Perspective Based on Panel VAR Model

本文运用基于SBM方向距离函数的GML指数对2003~2017年长江经济带108个城市的绿色全要素生产率进行测度,然后通过PVAR模型对"环境规制-产业集聚-绿色全要素生产率"之间是否存在长期均衡关系和动态效应进行实证检验。研究结果显示:2003~2017年长江经济带城市总体绿色全要素生产率变动幅度较大,呈现波动上升的良好态势。GMM模型估计结果与脉冲效应函数表明,环境规制、产业集聚对绿色全要素生产率的影响均具有时变效应,但作用方向正好相反。方差分解结果表明,环境规制、产业集聚是解释绿色全要素生产率预测方差的重要变量,然而绿色全要素生产率对环境规制、产业集聚的预测方差贡献度相对较小。因此,为实现经济高质量发展,政府应因地制宜,设计合理的环境政策、积极推进产业集聚,同时要注重提高产业集聚质量。

Slacks-based measure(SBM)and global malmquist luenberger(GML)index were used to evaluates green total factor productivity(GTFP)of 108 prefecture-level cities of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017.Then,the panel vector auto-regression(PVAR)model tested whether there was a bidirectional dynamic relationship between ’environmental regulation-industrial agglomeration-GTFP’.The results showed that:overall GTFP fluctuated,and was an upward trend slightly circuitously.GMM estimation results and impulse response function showed that the impact of both environmental regulation and industrial agglomeration on GTFP were time-varying effects in the opposite direction.And the results of variance decomposition analysis suggest that environmental regulation,industrial agglomeration were the important variables to explain the forecasting mean squsre error of the pollution variable but it was not true vice versa.Therefore,in order to achieve ’win-win’ for China’s economic development and environmental quality improvement,the government should make efforts to project reasonable environmental regulation,promote the positive impacts of industrial agglomeration and improve the level of industrial agglomeration.