我国改革开放40年资本投入与就业增长关系的统计分析

Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Capital Investment and Employment Growth in China’s 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up

在经济转轨过程中我国将始终面临着持续上升的就业压力,缓解日益严重的就业压力,必然要求从战略高度审视就业问题,充分就业是一个国家或地区宏观经济政策的重要目标。对于劳动力丰富的中国来说,增加社会就业总量更加迫切和重要。本文采用1978~2017年时间序列样本数据,运用协整检验(Cointegration Test)和格兰杰因果关系检验(Granger Causality Test),研究了物质资本、教育资本投入及R&D投入对就业增长关系的统计分析。经校验分析表明,从长期均衡分析来看,物质投入及教育投入对就业增长有正相关性,而R&D投入带来的是负相关性。本文据此得出结论,并提出相应的对策建议。

In the process of economic transition,China will always face increasing employment pressure.Relieving the increasingly serious employment pressure inevitably requires a strategic examination of the employment problem.Full employment is an important objective of a country’s or region’s macroeconomic policy.For China,which is rich in labor force,it is more urgent and important to increase the total amount of social employment.Based on the time series sample data from 1978 to 2017,this paper uses cointegration test and Granger causality test to study the statistical analysis of the relationship between material capital,educational capital investment and R&D(research and experimental development)investment on employment growth.Verification analysis shows that,in the long-term equilibrium analysis,material investment and education investment have positive correlation to employment growth,while R&D investment brings negative correlation.And the impulse response is used to analyze the results similar to Granger causality test.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.