汉江上游流域潜在蒸散量敏感性分析

Sensitivity analysis of potential evapotranspiration in upper Hanjiang River Basin

为研究全球变暖背景下汉江上游流域潜在蒸散量的变化特征,根据汉江上游流域1960—2015年汉中、石泉和安康3个气象站的逐日实测气象数据,采用彭曼蒙蒂斯方程计算逐日潜在蒸散量ET0.应用敏感性公式计算ET0对5个主要气象因子的敏感系数,并结合气象因子的多年相对变化分析ET0变化成因.结果表明:受太阳周年运动及地形等地理要素的共同影响,汉江上游不同气象因子及ET0的年内分布不一;汉江上游ET0对相对湿度最为敏感,各气象因子年敏感系数多呈显著下降趋势,敏感程度均达到"中"以上等级;ET0同气象因子表现出复杂非线性关系,日照是汉中站ET0变化的主导气象因子,石泉和安康站ET0变化的主导气象因子是相对湿度.

In order to study the variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in the upper Hanjiang River Basin under the background of global warming, based on the daily observed meteorological data of Hanzhong, Shiquan and Ankang meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River from 1960 to 2015, the daily potential evapotranspiration (ET0 ) was calculated by Penman-Monteith equation, and the sensitivity formula was used to calculate the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 to five main meteorological factors. And the causes of ET0 variation were analyzed in combination with the relative changes of meteorological factors over the years. The results show that the distribution of meteorological factors and ET0 in the upper Hanjiang River Basin within the year is different due to the combined influence of geographical factors such as solar annual movement and topography. ET0 in the upper Hanjiang River Basin is most sensitive to relative humidity. The annual sensitivity coefficients of meteorological factors show a significant downward trend, and the sensitivity reaches the "middle" level or above. The relationship between ET0 and meteorological factors is complex and non - linear. Sunshine is the dominant meteorological factor of ET0 variation at Hanzhong Station. Relative humidity is the dominant meteorological factor of ET0 variation at Shiquan and Ankang Station.