货币政策调控框架转型、财政乘数非线性变动与新时代财政工具选择

Transformation of China’s Monetary Policy Regulatory Framework, Nonlinear Change of Fiscal Multipliers and the Choice of Fiscal Instruments in China’s New Era

中国货币政策调控框架正从数量型为主向价格型为主转型,货币政策的变动会影响到财政乘数。本文在新凯恩斯框架下构建DSGE模型,建立权重可调的混合型货币政策规则,考察货币政策调控框架渐进转型过程中政府投资、政府消费、投资补贴、消费税、资本收益税和劳动税等六类结构性财政工具调控效果的变动情况。研究表明,货币政策调控框架转型会显著影响财政乘数,且财政乘数随转型进程非线性变动,其机理在于货币政策转型会影响财政冲击对私人资本的挤出效应强度。中国经济发展进入新时代,需要构建高效协同的宏观调控框架,财政政策应密切关注货币政策调控框架转型进程,以保证调控力度恰当、效果合意;对财政工具的选择应更加重视结构性减税与投资补贴,以改善民生福祉、激发经济活力;财政调控应有增有减,以维持预算平衡、防范化解政府债务风险。

China's monetary regulatory framework is gradually shifting from a quantitative to a price-based type.This transformation is not a leap,but a long process,during which quantitative and price-based instruments coexist.This transformation can change the multiplier effect of fiscal instruments.In these circumstances,fiscal regulations resulting from past experience with stereotypes may lead to unsatisfactory policy results. The current literature on the transformation of the monetary regulatory framework often adopts quantitative and price-based policy rules in DSGE models,which is not in line with the gradual transformation of monetary policy.In addition,most studies focus on the selection of the optimal monetary policy rule,rather than the effect of the transformation on the multiplier effect of fiscal instruments.In particular,little research theoretically analyzes the economic effect of monetary policy transformation on fiscal multipliers. In this paper,we develop a New Keynesian DSGE model with a hybrid monetary policy rule.By gradually adjusting the relative weight of quantitative and price-based monetary instruments,this paper examines the effect of the transformation of the monetary framework on various structural fiscal instruments.The DSGE model presented in this paper includes six types of endogenous structural fiscal instruments,namely government investment,government consumption,investment subsidies,consumption tax,capital gains tax,and labor tax.Endogenous fiscal instruments respond to output gaps and government debt gaps.The weight-adjustable hybrid monetary policy rule consists of the Taylor rule and the quantitative rule to respond to the output gap and the inflation gap.The weight of the price-based components is gradually changed from 0 to 1 at 0.05 intervals. Numerical simulations show that the transformation of the monetary regulatory framework significantly affects the macroeconomic effect of structural fiscal instruments.It is worth emphasizing that the fiscal multipliers of the structural fiscal instruments change in a non-linear way with the change in the monetary regulatory framework.When progress reaches a certain threshold,the effect of fiscal policy changes dramatically.That is,with the constant transformation of the monetary policy framework,the multipliers of fiscal instruments can change more rapidly as the process continues. This paper also constructs a partial equilibrium model to interpret the economic effect of monetary policy transformation on fiscal multipliers.In other words,fiscal shocks increase output,leading to higher interest rates (due to monetary policy regulations) and higher capital returns (due to interest rate-capital return parity).The increase in capital costs in turn reduces the capital demand of firms,creating a negative feedback channel on output.The mathematical deduction proves that the strength of the crowding out effect of fiscal shocks on private capital depends on the weight of price-based components in hybrid monetary rules,expressed as a non-linear relationship. This paper argues that the criterion for evaluating fiscal instruments should be based on fiscal multipliers,that is,for the same policy costs,the tool that allows for more effective policy intentions is better.Based on the simulation results,we suggest that the Chinese government should implement structural tax reductions and investment subsidies more vigorously,in particular to improve social welfare through reductions in consumption taxes and to stimulate economic vitality with investment subsidies.The government should develop an efficient policy framework to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies,and the Department of Finance should pay close attention to the monetary policy trend and its regulatory framework transformation process,to ensure appropriate policy effects.Government investment remains one of the most important means of regulating economic operations and the adjustment of fiscal instruments cannot be over-corrected.It is necessary to thoroughly analyze the importance of government investment to optimize the supply structure and transform the growth momentum.