论“百年未有之大变局”的时代内涵与治理逻辑

The Connotations of the Times and the Logic of Governance of “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”

基于国际政治的角度,从1919年至2019的100年里,人类社会经历了四次重大变化。一是爆发了两次争夺世界霸权的战争,第二次世界大战和冷战的结果是世界性殖民体系的崩溃;二是在全球范围内诞生了多个社会主义国家,彻底改变了世界政治的性质与地图,形成了资本主义国家、社会主义国家以及民族主义国家等多种世界性政治力量竞争共存的局面;三是美国与英国实现了所谓的世界性权力转移,美国取代英国成为世界上最为强大的国家,以不断创新的理念与方式建立了所谓近一个世纪的“美国治下的和平”;四是两次建立两极格局的努力均告失败,多极化格局从欧洲向全球扩展。这些重大变化都有一个共同的政治后果,就是东方国家普遍复兴走向世界舞台中心,国际治理日益成为主导国际政治的方式,文明问题逐渐上升为世界秩序最为迫切的矛盾。

From the perspective of international politics,human society has experienced four major changes during the century from 1919 to 2019.First,two world wars broke out because of striving for the world hegemony.The result of the World War II and the Cold War was the collapse of the world colonial system.Second,a number of socialist countries have been born on a global scale,completely changing the nature and map of world politics,and forming a situation in which a number of world political forces,such as capitalist,socialist and nationalist countries,compete and coexist.Third,the United States and the United Kingdom have achieved the so-called global power shift.The United States has replaced Britain as the most powerful country in the world,and has established the so-called“peace under the United States”in the past century with innovative ideas and methods.Forth,efforts to establish a bipolar pattern have failed,and the multi-polarization pattern has been expanded from Europe to the world.These major changes have a common political consequence.The general rejuvenation of the eastern countries has moved to the center of the world stage;international governance has increasingly become the dominant international politics;and the issue of civilization has gradually risen to the most urgent contradiction of the world order.