新中国的舆论调查研究:从议题变迁、意见样态到范式转向

Public Opinion Research in New China (after the Founding of the People’s Republic of China): Issue Changes, Opinion Patterns and Paradigm Shift

中国虽是较早进行民意测验的少数几个国家之一,但舆论研究的正式起步是在改革开放之后。舆论研究的30多年间,媒介技术的发展和社会环境的深刻改变给舆论调查与研究不断带来新的问题,学科热点处于相对剧烈变化的状态。技术的革新进一步释放社会话语,智能互联时代公众意见表达呈现复杂多样的样态:关系传播构成意见的长尾,但也加深群体分化;意见表达“强情绪—弱事实”,情绪宣泄多于理性对话;接力传播下平台多元去中心,算法过滤加剧社会舆论分化。相对于日渐丰富的舆论生态现实,中国舆论研究稍显滞后,未来舆论研究可尝试从情绪情感与社会心理、多元民意协商与现代治理以及复杂系统互动等话题中寻求创新突破。

Although China is one of the few countries that started to conduct opinion polls earlier, the formal starting point of public opinion research is after China's reform and opening up. Over the past 30 years, the development of media technology and the changes in the political and social environment have brought new research issues to the study of public opinion, and disciplinary hot spots are undergoing dramatic changes. Technological innovations further release the power of social discourse, and public opinion presents complex and diverse patterns when the Internet becomes more and more intelligent. Relational dissemination constitutes the long tail of opinions, but also deepens group polarization. Expression of opinions is characterized by "strong emotions-weak facts", and emotional venting is more than rational dialogue. Relay communication of multi-platform leads to decentralization, and algorithm filtering intensifies the division of public opinion. Compared with the increasingly rich ecological reality of public opinion, the research on public opinion in China is lagging behind. Future research can try to seek innovative breakthroughs in such topic areas as emotion and social psychology, as well as multi-channel public opinion consultation, modern governance, and complex system interaction.