中美贸易摩擦背景下中国高新技术产品贸易的影响条件分析

Analysis of Terms of Trade Impact of China’s High-tech Products Trade under the Background of Sino-US Trade Friction

科技创新的竞争是当前国际竞争的重点,高新技术产业已成为全球竞争的焦点产业,也是当前中美贸易摩擦的焦点所在。本文对中国高新技术产品对外贸易的发展变化进行了归纳与总结,并在此基础上建立VAR模型分析中国高新技术产品贸易对中国总体价格贸易条件的影响。研究结果显示,多年来高新技术产品贸易量的增加不仅没有对中国总体价格贸易条件的改善起到正向促进作用,反而恶化了价格贸易条件。其主要原因是中国科技创新的产业政策与贸易政策衔接的不平衡与不充分,在中美贸易摩擦背景下,提出制定高效强力的干中学与自主科技创新并举政策措施是中国实现贸易条件持续改善、变被动为主动的唯一出路,是中国制造业转型升级、向价值链高端提升的历史必由之路。

Nowadays,international competition has become the competition of scientific and technological innovation.High-tech industry is the strategic commanding point of competition among countries,and also the focus of current Sino-US trade friction.This paper firstly summarizes the development and changes of the foreign trade of China's high-tech products.And a VAR model is established to analyze the impact of high-tech products trade on China's overall price terms of trade.The results show that the increase of trade volume of high-tech products over the years not only has not played a positive role in promoting the improvement of China's overall price terms of trade,but has worsened the price terms of trade.The main reason is the unbalance and inadequacy of the connection between industrial policy and trade policy of scientific and technological innovation in China.In the future,under the background of increasing uncertainties in Sino-US trade frictions,in the game of big powers,it is the only way for China to turn passive into active,the only way for China's manufacturing industry to transform and upgrade,and the only way to realize the continuous improvement of China's terms of trade and industrial structure in the game of big powers.