制造业需求、政府规模与上游生产性服务业发展

Manufacturing Demand,Government Size and the Development of Upstream Producer Services

发展生产性服务业已经成为经济转型的重要问题,立足于中国生产性服务业需求不足的现状,基于价值链视角将研究数据细化至上游生产性服务业,从制造业需求角度考察其影响因素,并结合中国的转型经济背景,分析政府规模对两者关系的调节效应。主要结论包括:(1)劳动/资源密集型与资本/技术密集型制造业需求对上游生产性服务业的发展具有不同影响效应,前者为“挤出效应”,后者为“促进效应”;(2)政府规模的过度膨胀不仅将直接阻碍上游生产性服务业的发展,且能强化劳动/资源密集型制造业需求对上游生产性服务业发展的侵蚀效应;(3)政府规模的过度膨胀将损害人力资本积累,进而侵蚀人力资本对上游生产性服务业发展的推动作用。可以从优化服务业结构、提高资源利用效率和平衡地区经济发展等方面提出政策建议。

The development of producer services become a key topic in the discourses of economic transformation.This research is based on the current situation with respect to the severe shortage of demand in Chinese producer services.By refining the research data to upstream producer services in relation to value chain matters,this research examines those influencing factors which are of importance to producer services from the perspective of manufacturing demands,and it analyzes the adjustment effect of government scale on the relationship between them in the context of China s transitional economic background.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Labor/resource-intensive and capital/technically-intensive manufacturing demand can entail different effects on the development of upstream producer services.The former is “extrusion effect” and the latter is “promoting effect”;(2)Expansion of government will not only directly hinder the development of upstream producer services,but also strengthen the erosive effect of labor/resource-intensive manufacturing demand on the development of upstream producer services.(3)The excessive expansion of government will undermine the accumulation of human capital,thereby eroding the promoting effect of human capital on the development of the upstream producer services.This study provides some useful enlightenment for policy-making with the purpose of optimizing the structure of service industry,improving the efficiency of resource utilization and balancing regional economic development.