中美贸易收支对美国就业影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Impacts of Sino-US Trade Balance on US Employment

通过系统GMM模型,研究中美贸易收支对美国就业的影响。实证结果表明,中美贸易收支对美国就业产生了消极影响,但效果甚微。人民币升值无法改善美国的就业状况,这可能归咎于中美贸易结构已呈现竞争性状态,而影响美国就业最关键的因素为美国产出水平。此外,劳动生产率、工资水平也是影响美国就业的重要因素。上述结论表明,在中美贸易结构已呈现竞争状态的前提下,美国当务之急是采取宽松的对外贸易政策,积极优化调整其对中国贸易出口产品的结构,尤其是放宽对出口高科技产品的限制。

This paper studies the impacts of Sino-US trade balance on employment in the United States through the systematic GMM model.The empirical results show that Sino-US trade balance have negative impacts on US employment,but the effect is minimal;the appreciation of RMB cannot improve the employment situation in the United States,which may be attributed to the competitive state of Sino-US trade structure,and the most critical factor affecting US employment is the level of US output.In addition,labor productivity and wage levels are also important factors affecting US employment.The conclusions above indicate that the top priority for the United States is to adopt a loose foreign trade policy,actively optimize and adjust the structure to China’s trade export products,and especially relax restrictions on exporting high-tech products.