生育目标不一致性——理论解释与实证分析

Inconsistency of Fertility Goals: Theoretical Explanation and Empirical Analysis

为解析当前家庭生育目标偏离且低于社会生育目标的典型事实,构建世代交叠模型并采用省级面板数据进行实证分析,发现:表征为生育成本的教育支出和物价指数上升会显著降低家庭生育水平,表征为生育收益的社会养老保险对家庭生育水平的影响为负且不显著,表征为生育保障的生育保险支出占比增加会显著提高家庭生育水平。这意味着生育目标不一致性的主要原因可能是在生育收益社会化下生育成本快速增加且主要由家庭承担引致的生育行为正外部性;逐步完善以降低生育成本为核心的生育保险制度可以规避生育行为的正外部性,特别在生育保障制度安排相对缺乏的经济欠发达或者广大农村地区。

In order to analyze the typical fact that the current family fertility goal deviates from the social fertility goal by using the overlapping generation model is constructed by using the provincial panel data. From empirical analysis, it is found that the increase of education expenditure and price index, which is characterized as the cost of fertility, will significantly reduce the level of family fertility. The impact of social endowment insurance, which is characterized as reproductive return, on the level of family fertility is negative and not significant. The increased proportion of maternity insurance expenditure characterized by reproductive security will significantly improve the level of family fertility. This means that the main reason for the inconsistency of fertility goals may be the positive externalities of fertility behavior, which caused by the rapid increase in the cost of fertility under the socialization of fertility return. Gradually perfecting the maternity insurance system with the reduction of fertility cost as the core can avoid the positive externality of fertility behavior, especially in the economically underdeveloped or vast rural areas where the arrangement of fertility security system is relatively lacking.