中国城市规模与劳动生产率关系再检验——基于集聚来源与规模效率内在机理的分析

Retested on the Relationship between City Size and Labor Productivity in China: Based on the Internal Mechanism of Agglomeration Source and Scale Efficiency Analysis

利用2004—2015年中国280个地级及以上城市3360个样本组数据,从有效劳动规模效应和中间投入品本地化市场效应两个集聚来源出发,结合城市增长理论模型系统探讨了城市规模效率的内在作用机理及约束机制,分析城市规模对劳动生产率的影响规律。研究发现:劳动生产率对“城区常住人口”城市规模的弹性系数为2.4%,相比于“城市户籍人口”弹性系数(6.4%)要小,表明中国“半城市化”流动人口降低了大城市生产溢出效应;证实了中国城市规模与劳动生产率之间呈倒“U”型动态演进特征,但由此获得城市最优规模是否唯一?结果表明城市产业结构与城市规模协同影响劳动生产率,城市最优规模随产业结构升级而增加。同时,量化检验了市场需求、工资溢价和住房价格等因素对城市劳动生产率的影响。

This paper analyze the impact of city size on labor productivity from scale effect of effective labor and localized market effect of intermediate inputs, combining the urban growth model and discussing inner and restraint mechanism of city size efficiency by using 3360 samples from China’ s 280 prefecture-level cities (2004-2015). It is found that the elasticity coefficient of labor productivity to the “urban permanent population” is 2.4%, which is smaller than that of “urban permanent population” which is 6.4%, It presents that “semi-urbanized” floating population would reduce the spillover effect of big cities which proved that there is an inverted “U”-shaped dynamic evolution between city size and labor productivity in China. However, is the obtained optimal size of the city unique? The results show that the coordination effect between industrial structure and the scale of the city would influence the labor productivity. Which indicated that the optimal city size increases with the upgrading of industrial structure.At the same time, the effects of market demand, wage premium and housing price on urban labor productivity were examined quantitatively.