摘要
近年来我国房地产业发展迅猛。以郑州市为研究对象,基于郑州市1995-2017年的房地产投资额和生产总值的时间序列数据,对这些数据采用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等实证分析,结果表明二者存在着长期的协整关系,在滞后期为1或2年时有单向的因果关系。
China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Based on the time series data of real estate investment amount and total output value of Zhengzhou City from 1995 to 2017, the authors make empirical analysis on these data using cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. The result shows that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the real estate investment and economic growth in Zhengzhou, and the economic growth Granger-causes real estate investment in Zhengzhou, but not the opposite, with a lag time of either one or two years.
作者
胡清华
邵明振
HU Qing-hua;SHAO Ming-zhen(School of Economics, He’nan University, Kaifeng 475000, China)
基金
河南省软科学研究项目(192400410011)
