摘要
在致灾因子危险性分析、脆弱性分析的基础上,通过选取相关指标来体现地震灾害的自然属性和社会属性,以指标权重来表征致灾因子和承灾体之间复杂作用的结果;以模糊理论为基础,采用德尔菲法(Delphi)和层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,通过处理搜集到的各指标数值,得出浙江省各市的风险评估值;讨论浙江省的地震灾害风险特点,为减轻地震灾害风险提供参考。
In this paper, the natural property and social property of earthquake disaster are reflected by selecting relevant indexes on the basis of risk analysis and vulnerability analysis, to represent the results of the complex interaction between the disaster factor and the hazard-affected body. Based on fuzzy theory, we use Delphi survey and AHP method to determine the weight of each index, then calculate the risk assessment value of each city in Zhejiang province. The characteristics of earthquake risk in Zhejiang province are discussed in order to provide references for reducing the risk.
作者
侯林锋
李大卫
周新民
HOU Linfeng;LI Dawei;ZHOU Xinmin(Zhejiang Earthquake Agency, Hangzhou 310013, China)
出处
《华北地震科学》
2019年第4期23-28,共6页
North China Earthquake Sciences
基金
浙江省科技计划项目“地震灾害风险监测与评估技术应用”(2018C03045)
浙江省地震局局科技项目“嘉兴市防震减灾能力评估指标体系研究”(2018zjj06)
关键词
地震灾害风险
指标体系
德尔菲法
层次分析法
earthquake risk
index system
delphi survey
analytic hierarchy process
