山东半岛北部海域三维海洋水动力数值预报系统的初步构建

Preliminary construction of a three-dimensional marine hydrodynamic numerical forecast system in northern Shandong peninsula sea area

为了实现山东半岛北部海域三维海洋水动力高精度的业务化预报,文章基于两层嵌套的WRF(Weather Research Forecast)大气模型和三层嵌套的ROMS(Regional Ocean Modeling System)海洋模型,初步构建了聚焦山东半岛北部海域的三维海洋水动力预报系统,可提供大气和海洋未来3d的逐时预报产品。对模拟结果进行验证分析表明,大区黄海和中区渤海的同潮图与前人研究结论相符;与沿岸验潮站观测资料相比,主要分潮的振幅和迟角的平均误差均在允许的范围内。此外,大区黄海的水平环流结构与前人研究结论相一致,温度的水平分布特征与卫星观测资料相符。因此,文章针对山东半岛北部海域构建的三维海洋水动力数值预报系统是可行的。

In order to realize the high precision three-dimensional marine hydrodynamic daily forecast in northern Shandong peninsula sea area,a three-dimensional marine hydrodynamic numerical prediction system is preliminary constructed,which can provide next three days hourly forecast products based on the two-layer nested atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research Forecast) and the three-layer nested ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System).The verifications and analysis reveal that the cotidal charts of the large area Yellow Sea and the middle area Bohai Sea are in consistent with the previous studies,and mean deviations of the main tidal component amplitude and phase lag are within the allowable range when compared to the costal tide gauge observations.In addition,the ROMS simulated horizontal circulation structures of the large area Yellow Sea are in consistent with the previous studies,and the temperature horizontal distribution characteristics are consistent with the satellite observations.Therefore,it is possible to construct the three-dimensional marine hydrodynamic numerical forecast system in northern Shandong peninsula sea area.