我国工资收入差距监测预警系统构建与实证研究

Construction and Empirical Research of Wage Income Gap Monitoring and Early Warning System in China

本研究运用经济预警理论和方法构建了由监测体系、分析体系和决策体系组成的我国工资收入差距监测预警系统,建立了动态跟踪、有效监测、科学分析、及时预警和提前防控的一整套理论框架和技术手段方法。同时,利用构建的监测预警系统,使用全国31个省份、293个地级以上城市的相关基础数据,对我国地区工资收入差距进行了监测预警分析。实证研究结果显示:我国地区间工资收入差距目前基本处于无警状态,未来1-3年存在扩大的趋势,但总体上仍处于无警状态。建立和完善我国工资收入差距监测预警系统,还需要更深入的理论研究和实践的不断探索,必须要有计划地逐步开展监测预警试点工作,改进和优化基础数据采集统计,根据不同层面的工资收入差距灵活选取监测指标与监测方法,进一步改进监测预警方法,客观理性地看待监测预警的分析结果,并把支撑系统和专家系统充分结合起来。

Using the economic early warning theory and method to construct a monitoring and early warning system for wage income gap in China, which consists of monitoring system, analysis system and decision-making system, establishes a set of theory of dynamic tracking, effective monitoring, scientific analysis, timely warning and early prevention and control framework and technical means. At the same time, using the built monitoring and early warning system, analyzes wage income gap in China based on the relevant basic data of 31 provinces and 293 prefecture-level cities across the country. The empirical research results show that the wage income gap in China is basically in a state of no alarm, and there is an expanding trend in the next 1-3 years, but it is still in a state of no alarm. Establishing and improving the monitoring and early warning system for wage income gaps in China requires more in-depth theoretical research and continuous exploration of practice. It is necessary to gradually carry out monitoring and early warning pilot work in a planned manner, improve and optimize basic data collection statistics, and select monitoring indicators and methods according to different levels, further improve the monitoring and early warning methods, objectively and rationally view the analysis results of monitoring and early warning, and fully integrate the support system and the expert system.