基于实物期权模型的企业并购定价博弈研究

Research on Enterprise M&A Pricing Game Based on Real Option Model

并购活动是21世纪企业成功与否最重要的活动之一,并购活动的成败很大程度上受限于并购定价,传统的并购定价方法目前已不能满足快速变化的现实需要。当今急需设计一套适合并购定价谈判的方法。文章通过对传统并购定价方法的分析,发现并购带来的协同效应会产生协同溢价,而实物期权价值是该协同溢价的一部分。进而得出企业并购的价格包括企业的账面价值和协同溢价净值。最后通过完全信息情况下的并购双方讨价还价博弈,得到了最终的并购价格。发现并购价格会受到博弈的回合数、并购双方出价次序、谈判消耗系数等因素的影响。

M&A activity is one of the most important activities for the success of enterprises in the 21st century. The success or failure of M&A activities is largely limited by M&A pricing. The traditional M&A pricing methods are currently unable to meet the real needs of rapid changes. Today, there is an urgent need to design a methodology for M&A pricing negotiations. Through the analysis of the traditional M&A pricing method, the article finds that the synergy brought by M&A will generate a synergy premium, and the real option value is part of the synergy premium. Further, the price of the enterprise merger and acquisition includes the book value of the enterprise and the net value of the synergy premium. Finally, through the bargaining game between the two parties in the case of complete information, the final M&A price is obtained. It is found that the M&A price will be affected by the number of rounds of the game, the order of bidding by both parties, and the negotiation consumption coefficient.