我国国内旅游收入影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of China’s Domestic Tourism Income

以1997—2016年的数据为样本,运用多元线性回归模型,对影响我国国内旅游收入水平的5个主要因素进行分析;结论表明:国内旅客人数和旅行社个数是影响国内旅游收入的主要因素,当其他因素不变时,国内旅客人数每增加1×106人次,国内旅游收入会随着平均增加约12.18亿元;每增加一个旅行社,国内旅游收入将平均减少0.47亿元;对此,应实施政府主导型旅游发展战略,促进旅游市场结构升级,开发相关旅游产业体系。

Takeing the data from 1997 to 2016 as the sample,this paper uses multiple linear regression model to analyze the five main factors affecting China s domestic tourism income level.The conclusion shows that the number of domestic tourists and travel agencies is the main factors affecting domestic tourism income.When other factors remain unchanged,the domestic tourism income will increase by an average of 1.218 billion yuan for the increase of every one million domestic tourists.For each additional travel agency,domestic tourism income will decrease by 47 million yuan on average.In this regard,the government should implement the leading tourism development strategy,promote the upgrading of tourism market structure,and develop relevant tourism industry system.