人口老龄化对我国住房消费的影响分析

An Analysis of the Influence of Aging Population on Housing Consumption in China

基于2005-2016年我国30个省市自治区的面板数据,运用单位根检验、Hausman检验和固定效应模型实证分析人口老龄化对住房消费的影响,并分别对我国东中西部地区进行了分区域的实证检验以探讨此种影响的区域性特征。研究发现:人口老龄化对我国住房消费有显著的拉动作用,同时住宅供应面积、地区生产总值对住房消费也有显著正向影响。此外,人口老龄化对住房消费的影响存在显著的区域差异:对东部地区表现为显著正向作用,西部地区则显著为负,而对中部地区影响不显著。

Based on the inter-provincial panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2016, the unit root test, Hausman test and fixed effect model are used to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on housing consumption, and a sub-regional empirical test is carried out on the eastern, central and western regions of China to explore the regional characteristics of this impact. It is found that population aging has a significant driving effect on housing consumption in China, and housing supply area and GDP also have significant positive impacts on housing consumption. In addition, there are significant regional differences in the impact of population aging on housing consumption. Population aging has a significant positive effect on the eastern region, a significant negative effect on the western region, and an insignificant effect on the central region.