塔里木油田碳酸盐岩油藏产量预测方法

Production Prediction Methods for Carbonate Reservoirs in Tarim Oilfield

碳酸盐岩油藏非均质性强,初期产量递减快,常规产量预测方法不能满足生产需要。为此研究优化了传统预测方法,阐述了指数递减分类预测和扩展指数递减预测的基本模型和拟合方法。在找到影响产量变化的主要因素后,对已投产老井进行分类,利用指数递减分类模型拟合油井生产数据,可以较好地指导老井在规划期的产量预测。扩展指数递减模型适用于碳酸盐岩油藏此类投产后呈现较快递减趋势的油藏,借鉴相似类型油藏已有老井的扩展指数递减规律,可以预测新井在规划期的产量。2种预测方法相结合,可进一步提高碳酸盐岩油藏预测产量的可靠性,指导此类油藏在未来一段时间的生产实践。

Carbonate reservoir is characterized by strong heterogeneity and rapid production decline at the early stage,and the conventional production prediction methods can’t meet the production demands.The paper optimizes the conventional production prediction methods and discusses the basic models and matching methods of both exponential decline prediction and stretched exponential decline prediction. After the main factors influencing the production are identified,the producing wells are classified and an exponential decline model is used to match the production data of oil wells,thus the production prediction for producing wells during programming can be well guided.The stretched exponential decline model is applicable for the reservoirs with rapid production decline such as carbonate reservoirs.Taking the stretched exponential decline laws of producing wells in some similar reservoirs as references,the production of newly-drilled wells can be predicted.The combination of the 2 prediction methods can further improve the reliability of production prediction for carbonate reservoirs and guide the production practices of the similar reservoirs in the future.