基于Meta分析的中国水资源价值移位研究

Meta-Regression on the Benefit Transfer of Water Resources in China

Meta分析价值移位方法是国际上资源价值评价领域关注的热点,国内相关研究较少。水作为重要的自然资源,研究其价值是解决我国水资源问题的关键途径。本文搜集我国水资源价值评估实证研究结果,建立效益移位基础数据库,应用基于Meta分析的函数效益移位方法,对我国水资源价值移位做实证研究,探讨效益移位法在我国水资源价值评估领域的可应用性及发展前景。结果表明:①水资源所在地、人口密度、水质、供水成本和利润以及对最大水费承受程度的差异会影响地区水资源价值变化;②模型平均移位误差在可接受范围内,可用于快速评估地区水资源价值;③省级层面水资源价值呈现出沿海高于内陆,华北、华东和西南高于其他地区的空间分异规律。

Meta-analysis benefit transfer method is an international hot topic in the field of resource value evaluation,but domestic research is less and lacks systematic.Water as an important natural resource,to study its value is a key approach to solve the water problem in China.This paper collects the empirical research results of water resources valuation in China,establishes the basic database of benefit transfer,and uses Meta-analysis benefit transfer method to do empirical research on the value transfer of water resources in China,and discusses the applicability and development prospect of benefit transfer method in the field of water resources valuation in China.The results show that:(1) The difference in the level of water resources,population density,water quality,water supply costs and profits,and the maximum water fee tolerance will affect the change of regional water resources value;(2) The average transfer error of the Meta-analysis benefit transfer model is within the acceptable range,which can be used to quickly assess the value of regional water resources;(3) The value of water resources at the provincial level shows the spatial differentiation of coastal areas is higher than the inland,and Northern China,Eastern China and Southwest China is higher than other areas.