空气污染物的时空演化及社会经济驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Socio-economic Drivers of Primary Air Pollutants from Energy Consumption in the Yangtze River Delta

本文以2006-2015年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析该地区不同部门因能源消费而产生的典型污染物排放量,然后利用LMDI模型,对空气污染进行社会经济驱动因素分析。结果表明:该地区CO2、SO2、PM2.5与PM10等空气污染物排放量均呈现先快速增长后缓慢减少的趋势,排放的峰值多出现在了2013年,而NOx则一直保持增长的趋势。其中,电力与工业部门是空气污染物的主要排放源,但对排放量贡献呈减少趋势,生活部门与交通部门污染物排放量则逐步增长,尤其是对PM2.5与PM10排放量的贡献不可忽视。人口与经济增长对污染物排放量起到了正向拉动作用,经济因素的驱动作用最为明显,其效应值呈现先小幅增加后大幅下降的趋势,能源效率与能源结构有抑制作用,其对污染物排放的效应值仅次于经济因素,而能源结构变化的效应很小。

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was taken as the research object to analyze the emissions of typical pollutants caused by energy consumption of difference sectors during 2006 to 2015.And then the socio-economic drivers of air pollution emissions were analyzed based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI).The results showed that the emissions of CO2,SO2,PM10 and PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta showed a rapid growth and then slowly decreased,and the peak of emissions appeared in 2013,NOx kept growing.In terms of sectors,the electricity and industrial sectors were the main sources of air pollutants in the Yangtze River Delta,and the contribution to air pollution emissions was decreasing.The pollutant emissions from the civil and transportation sectors were gradually increasing,especially the contribution to emissions of PM2.5 and PM10 could not be ignored.The population and economy played a positive role in the growth of energy consumption and air pollution emissions.The driving force of economic factors was the most obvious,and its effect value showed a slight increase and then a sharp decline.The energy efficiency and energy structure had an inhibitory effect on the growth of energy consumption and air pollution emissions in the Yangtze River Delta.The effect value and the economic factor showed the same trend,and the effects of energy structure were very small.