环境扰动下进口原油供应链网络柔性的系统动力学仿真

SD Simulation of Flexibility of Imported Crude Oil Supply Chain Network Under Environmental Disruption

原油是关系到国家经济和安全的重要一次性能源,而原油供应链的协调稳定是保障原油供应的重要条件。在分析进口原油供应链网络的环境干扰因素及扰动情形基础上,运用系统动力学方法(SD)对扰动发生时进口原油供应链网络的成本增量和中断时间增量,以及引入契约协调后供应链成本柔性和时间柔性变化进行仿真,进而运用契约理论构建进口原油供应链网络契约协调策略,以提高进口原油供应链网络的柔性。

Crude oil is an important primary energy related to national economy and security , and the coordination and stability of crude oil supply chain is a critical condition to guarantee crude oil supply. Based on the analysis of environmental disturbance factors and disruption situations of imported crude oil supply chain network , the cost increment and downtime increment of imported crude oil supply chain network under environmental disruption were simulated by using the system dynamics ( SD ) method in this paper , and cost flexibility and time flexibility of the supply chain when contractual coordination is introduced were also simulated.In addition , relevant contractual coordination policies were constructed using the contract theory to enhance the flexibility of imported crude oil supply chain network.