环境规制对出口商品技术复杂度的影响效应及其约束条件——基于我国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

The Effect of Environmental Regulation on Sophistication of Export and Its Constraint Condition ——A Study of Threshold Effect Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

本文利用2003~2010年30个省份的数据,采用Hansen(1999)的非线性面板数据门槛模型,实证分析环境规制影响出口商品技术复杂度的门槛效应。研究结果显示,环境规制具有双重门槛效应,即环境规制强度存在一个适度区间。在此区间内,环境规制对出口技术复杂度升级的促进效应最大,过低或过高的规制水平都不利于出口技术复杂度的升级,也即环境规制与出口技术复杂度之间存在倒N型关系。进一步分析表明,代表创新能力的经济发展水平和人力资本也是环境规制对出口商品技术复杂度产生影响的约束条件。也就是说,只有当经济发展水平和人力资本超越某一水平时,加强环境规制才能显著提升出口技术复杂度,即伴随它们的上升,环境规制与出口商品技术复杂度之间呈U型非线性关系。

The paper empirically tests the effect of environmental regulation on the sophistication of export of manufacturing industries by using the panel data of China's 30 provinces during 2003-2010 and the technique of threshold.The results are as follows:( 1 ) Environmental regulation has an optimal range in which the effect can be maximized;( 2 ) The double threshold effect of economic development and human resources are observed,that is to say,the relationship of environmental regulation or human resources and sophistication of export demonstrates a U-shaped curve,first negative and then positive,with the promotion of economic development level or human resources level.In addition,this paper also indicates that human resources,R&D and infrastructure are important factors in promoting the level of sophistication of export,but there aren't significant effects of FDI and trade on it.