基于系统动力学的北京市农村居住建筑能源消费预测研究

Energy Consumption Prediction of Beijing Rural Residential Buildings Based on System Dynamics

结合北京市农村居住建筑能源消费现状,基于系统动力学建立能源消费系统仿真模型,对2020—2050年北京市农村居住建筑能源消费总量进行预测,并通过情景分析来模拟不同强度的建筑节能政策情景对能源结构及消费总量的影响,研究表明虽然农村居住建筑能源消费总量仍然会呈现逐渐上升趋势,但关注既有建筑节能改造比关注新建建筑节能水平对控制农村居住建筑能源消费总量、优化能源结构更有效率。

Based on the current situation of energy consumption in Beijing rural residential buildings,a system dynamics simulation model of energy consumption system is established to predict the total energy consumption of Beijing rural residential buildings from 2020 to 2050,and simulate the effects of building energy efficiency policy scenarios of different strengths on energy structure and total consumption.The research shows that the total energy consumption of rural residential buildings will continue to show a gradual upward trend.It is more efficient to focus on the retrofitting of existing buildings than on the level of new buildings to control the total energy consumption of rural residential buildings and optimize the energy structure.