社会资本、信贷约束与居民消费升级——基于CFPS家户数据的经验分析

Social Capital, Credit Constraint and Household Consumption Upgrade:Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Household Data

中国经济正处于产业结构转型和增长动力转变的关键时期,居民消费的重要性愈发凸显,而中国是传统的人情社会,家庭积累的社会资本可能对居民消费升级产生影响。社会资本作为一种社会资源,可以通过影响民间借贷,缓解家庭的信贷约束和降低预防性储蓄,从而促进消费升级。本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)所得的2014年和2016年的数据进行了实证分析,研究发现:从数量上看,社会资本可以提高居民消费总量;从结构上看,它还可以优化消费结构。分组回归进一步发现,社会资本不仅对城乡低中收入家庭消费总量的影响更大,而且能促进城镇低中收入家庭和农村高收入家庭的消费结构优化。机制检验发现,社会资本是通过民间借贷这一中介变量影响消费升级。本文从微观视角为新时代增强消费的基础性作用提供一定的经验参考。

China’s economy is in a critical period of transformation of industrial structure and shift of growth momentum,the importance of household consumption has become increasingly prominent.However,China is a traditional human favor society,and the social capital accumulated by families may have an impact on household consumption upgrading.As a social resource,social capital can alleviate household liquidity constraints and reduce preventive savings by promoting private lending,and therefore promote consumption upgrading.This paper uses the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2014 and 2016 to conduct an empirical analysis.It is found that,in terms of quantity,social capital can increase the total consumption of residents;from the structural point of view,it can also optimize the consumption structure.The grouping regression further finds that social capital not only has a greater impact on the total consumption of low-income and middle-income households in urban and rural areas,but also promotes the optimization of the consumption structure of low-income and middle-income families in urban areas and high-income households in rural areas.The mechanism test finds that it is through the mediating variable of private lending that the social capital affects consumption upgrading.This paper provides a certain empirical reference for enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in the new era from a micro perspective.