雾霾污染影响居民消费吗？——来自城市空间面板数据的证据

Does Haze Pollution Affect Household Consumption? Evidence from Urban Space Panel Data

为探究雾霾污染是否对居民消费产生影响,本文利用2005-2016年中国262个城市面板数据,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法揭示雾霾污染与居民消费的空间关联特征,构建广义嵌套空间计量模型(GNS)深入剖析雾霾污染对居民消费的空间影响。结果表明:雾霾污染与居民消费存在较强的空间集聚与空间依赖特征;居民消费具有显著正向空间溢出效应;雾霾污染会显著抑制本地区居民消费,但会促进邻近城市居民消费,且对邻近城市居民消费作用更强;此外,教育水平、交通条件、收入水平、房地产投资及金融发展均在不同程度上影响居民消费。因而未来要从区域协调入手,优化消费环境,促进居民消费升级,实现"治霾"与"激发消费潜力"的双赢局面。

In order to explore whether haze pollution has an impact on household consumption,this paper uses the panel data of 262 cities in China from 2005 to 2016 to research the spatial correlation characteristics of haze pollution and household consumption by using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method and constructs the generalized nested spatial econometric model(GNS)to make an in-depth analysis of the spatial impact of haze pollution on household consumption.The results show that,there is strong spatial agglomeration and spatial dependence between haze pollution and household consumption.There is a significant positive spatial spillover effect on household consumption.The haze pollution has a restraining effect on the consumption of local residents,has a certain promoting effect on the residents’consumption in neighboring cities,and has a stronger effect on neighboring cities.In addition,the education level,traffic conditions,income levels,real estate investment and financial development all affect residents’consumption to varying degrees.In the future,we must start from regional coordination,optimize the consumption environment,promote the upgrading of household consumption,and achieve a win-win situation of"governing haze"and"inducing consumption potential".