开放度水平提升是否促进了区域经济增长?——基于“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据的实证分析

Does the Increase of Openness Promote Regional Economic Growth?——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Countries Along the “one Belt and one Road”

基于"一带一路"沿线66个国家2000-2015年的面板数据,构建开放度综合评价指标,并利用面板数据模型系统探讨了开放度对沿线国家经济增长的影响。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家开放度水平总体呈上升趋势,年平均增长率为5.24%,总体上,开放度对"一带一路"沿线国家经济增长有显著正向影响,但不存在倒U形影响。分时段来看,2000-2008年开放度对经济增长有显著促进作用,而2008年以后,开放度对经济增长的影响呈下降趋势。分区域来看,开放度对中东欧、独联体、南亚经济增长的正向影响较大,而对中亚、西亚-北非的正向影响较小。分不同经济水平国家来看,呈纺锤体形影响,即开放度对中高收入国家影响较大,而对高收入和中低及以下收入国家影响相对较小。

Based on the panel data of 66 countries from 2000 to 2015, this paper systematically examines the impact of openness on economic growth of countries along the "Belt and Road"(BRI) by developing a comprehensive evaluation index system of openness and adopting the panel data model. The empirical results show that first, openness presents a rising trend year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.24%. Second, on the whole, openness has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but shows no Kuznets Curve effect. Third, from a temporal perspective, openness significantly promoted economic growth from 2000 to 2008, but after 2008, the impact showed a downward trend. Fourth, from a regional perspective, openness has a greater positive impact on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, Community of Independent States and South Asia, as opposed to that on Central Asia、West Asia/North Africa. At last, from the perspective of countries with different economic levels, there exists a spindle effect. In other words, openness has a greater positive impact on upper and middle income countries and a smaller impact on other countries.