自贸区对产业结构升级的政策效应研究——基于上海自由贸易试验区的准自然实验

Study on the Policy Effect of Free Trade Zone on Industrial Structure Upgrading——A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Shanghai Free Trade Zone

利用我国省级季度数据,采用前沿“反事实”框架下的合成控制法,对上海自贸区对产业结构升级的政策效应进行评估。研究发现:上海自贸区设立对产业结构高度化具有显著正向影响,对加工程度高度化的政策效应较弱,其平均处理效应分别为30.61和-1.84。通过自贸区成立时点变化、安慰剂检验及DID平均效应检验,以上结论均具有较强的稳健性。进一步研究发现,上海自贸区短期内对其他省市产业结构升级效应影响不明显,甚至存在一定的负向效应。积极引导区内产业结构优化升级、扩大自贸区建设的区域示范溢出效应将是未来自贸区重要发展方向。

Using quarterly provincial data, this paper evaluates the policy effect of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone on the level of industrial structure upgrading by means of synthetic control method under the frontier "counterfactual" framework. The study finds that the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure supererogation but a weak one on the supererogation of processing with average processing effects of respectively 30.61 and-1.84. Through the time-point changes of the establishment of the free trade zone, placebo test and DID average effect test, the above conclusions remain strongly robust. Further research finds that the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has no obvious impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in other provinces and cities in the short term, and even shows a certain negative effect. It will be the future way of development to rigorously guide the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and to enhance the regional demonstration spillover effect of the construction of the free trade zone.