生产性财政支出、经济增长与社会福利最大化

Impact of optimal fiscal production expenditure on economic growth and social welfare

从理论与实证两个方面研究生产性财政支出对经济增长与社会福利的促进作用这一财政领域十分关注的问题.理论研究中,通过构建包含政府财政消费性支出和生产性支出的内生增长模型,推导了经济增长和社会福利最大化目标下各自最优的生产性财政支出结构,并分析了政府生产性财政支出在两目标下最优支出结构的差异及原因.实证研究发现,2004年~2012年间,中国的东、中、西三大经济带政府生产性支出在社会福利目标下的最优占比普遍低于经济增长目标;而在2004年~2008年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比还未达到两目标下的最优占比值,政府的生产性财政支出还有进一步提升的空间;但在2009年~2012年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比已接近甚至超过了两目标下的最优占比值,继续增加生产性财政支出将对经济增长与社会福利的提升都产生抑制作用,尤其在东部地区、中部地区更为明显.因此,在中国经济发展进入“新常态”时期,政府更需审时度势、通过适时优化财政支出以促进经济增长与社会福利的最大化.

This paper analyzes the effect of fiscal expenditure on economic growth and social welfare through both theoretical and empirical studies. In the theoretical study, the paper derives the optimal fiscal production expenditures to achieve the objectives of economic growth maximization and social welfare maximization, respectively , by establishing an endogenous economic model with government fiscal consumption expenditure and production expenditure, and analyzes the different optimal fiscal production expenditures, as well as the reasons for the differences, with the two objectives respectively. The empirical findings show that the optimal fiscal production expenditure for social welfare maximization is smaller than that for economic growth maximization in all of the three economic belts of China from 2004 to 2012. Moreover, the government fiscal production expenditure has been insufficient since it was below the optimal amounts with either of the objectives from 2004 to 2008;but it has been sufficient or even exceeded the optimal amounts from 2009 to 2012, hence increasing production expenditures will harm the economic growth and social welfare, especially in the East and Middle economic belts of China. Accordingly, the government needs to correctly assess the situation and optimize fiscal expenditures to maximize economic growth and social welfare in the new normal state of Chinas economy.