试论70年来中国国际经济地位的变化——基于1千年主要国家赶超历程的考察

On the Changes in China’s International Economic Status in the Past 70 Years——Based on the Investigation of the Catch-up Process of Major Countries in the Past Thousand Years

本文采用历史GDP、白银工资、福利比、实物工资、人类发展指数等指标,考察了从公元1000年左右到现在,中国从被追赶超越,与工业化国家差距拉大,到新中国成立后才在比较低的起点上开始实现有效追赶的千年史。中国在起点低、起步时间晚的情况下,在70年时间里有效缩小了与高收入国家的差距。借鉴意大利、西班牙、荷兰、英国、美国、日本、韩国、新加坡等国家1千年来追赶和超越的经验,中国大约会在21世纪中叶实现成功追赶。

This paper uses historical GDP,silver wages,welfare ratio,physical wages,human development index and other indicators to examine that from about 1000 AD real to the present,China has been chased and surpassed,its gap with industrialized countries has widened,an after the founding of New China,it began to achieve an effective catch-up.In the case of a low starting point and a late start tim e,China has effectively narrowed the gap with high-income countries in 70 years.Drawing on the experience of catching up and surpassing history of Italy,Spain,the Netherlands,the United Kingdom,the United S tates,Japan,South Korea,Singapore and other countries over the past thousand years,China will successfully catch up in the middle of the 21st century.