城镇化、老龄化及政府卫生支出对我国卫生总费用的影响研究

nalysis on the Impact of Urbanization, Aging, Government Health Expenditure on China’s Total Health Expenditure

目的:分析我国城镇化、老龄化、政府卫生支出对我国卫生总费用的影响,并从我国整体、东部、中部和西部比较各因素影响程度的差异,为保障卫生总费用合理增长提供依据。方法:利用历年"中国统计年鉴"和"中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴",以人均GDP作为控制变量构建面板数据模型,并采用最小二乘法对影响因素进行分析。结果:从我国整体情况来看,人均GDP和人口老龄化对人均卫生总费用的回归系数分别为1.18和0.40。人均GDP、城镇化和人口老龄化程度对东部地区人均卫生总费用的影响显著为正,回归系数分别为1.57、0.95和0.19,政府卫生支出的影响为负向。城镇化、人均GDP和人口老龄化对中部人均卫生总费用具有影响,回归系数分别为1.26、0.94和0.30。政府卫生支出对西部地区人均卫生总费用的影响最大,回归系数为0.66。结论:我国人均卫生总费用受经济增长水平影响最大,城镇化水平在中部地区的影响最大,老龄化在短期内对人均卫生总费用带来的影响相对较小,政府卫生支出对西部地区人均卫生总费用有较大影响。各省应根据自身实际情况具体分析,针对不同影响因素采取措施使卫生总费用合理增长。

Objective: To analyze the impact of urbanization, aging and government health expenditure on China's total health expenditure;compare the degree of different influencing factors among the whole country, eastern, central and western regions, so as to provide empirical evidence for ensuring the reasonable increase of the total health expenditure. Methods: Based on the China Statistical Year Book and China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook, taking GDP per capita as control variable to analyze the influencing factors by least square method. Results: For the whole country, regression coefficients of GDP per capita and population ageing were 1.18 and 0.40. The impact of per capita GDP, urbanization and population aging on total health expenditure per capita in the eastern region were significantly positive, the regression coefficient were 1.57, 0.95 and 0.19, and the impact of government health expenditure was negative. Urbanization, per capita GDP and population aging has an impact on total health expenditure per capita in central China. The regression coefficients were 1.26, 0.94 and 0.30. The impact of government health expenditure was not significant. Government health expenditure had the greatest impact on the total health expenditure per capita in the western region, with a regression coefficient of 0.66. Conclusion: The total health expenditure per capita in China was mostly affected by the level of economic growth. The urbanization level had the greatest impact in the central region. The aging had a relatively small impact on the total health expenditure per capita in the short term. Government health expenditure had greater impact on the total health expenditure per capita in the western region. Each province should take measures to increase the total health expenditure reasonably according to its own actual situation.