“去杠杆”对策选择：货币扩张与供给侧结构性改革

“Deleverage” Policy Choice: Monetary Expansion and Supply-side Structural Reform

本文基于23个国家1989-2017年的动态面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法考察货币扩张、供给侧结构性改革及其波动对经济杠杆的影响,并分别采用信贷总量与直接融资规模作为供给侧结构性改革在总量与结构上的代理变量。结果表明,各宏观调控政策与经济杠杆之间均保持显著的"倒U型"关系,即存在一个"拐点",且政策波动对经济杠杆均具有刺激作用。区别在于,三者中直接融资规模的拐点位置居于首位但波动效应最弱。因此,政府在调控经济杠杆时应将着力点放在扩大直接融资规模上,并利用其他政策加以辅助,同时加强宏观政策的动态管理,为顺利实现杠杆率下降提供稳定的金融环境。

Based on the dynamic panel data of 23 countries from 1989 to 2017, this paper examines the impact mechanism of monetary expansion and supply-side structural reform on economic leverage by using the method of systematic GMM estimation, and uses the total amount of credit and the scale of direct financing as the proxy variables of the total amount and structure of supply-side structural reform respectively.The results show that there is a significant "inverted U" relationship between macro-control policies and economic leverage, that is, there is a "turning point", and policy fluctuations have stimulating effects on economic leverage. The difference is that among the three policies, the inflection point of direct financing scale is the highest and the volatility effect is the weakest. Therefore, when regulating economic leverage, the authorities should focus on expanding the scale of direct financing, and make use of other policies to supplement it. At the same time, they should strengthen the dynamic management of macro policies to provide a stable financial environment for the smooth realization of leverage reduction.