中美贸易摩擦对全球价值链重构的影响及中国方案

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on the Reconstruction of Global Value Chain and China’s Plan

本文从全球价值链的视角,分析了美国对华发起贸易争端的动因、影响以及中国应对之策,认为中美贸易摩擦的直接原因是经济全球化背景下的中美贸易失衡,深层次原因是两国在政治经济利益上的冲突。中美贸易摩擦将直接导致中美双边贸易额下降,对全球供应链和产业链产生冲击,引发贸易、投资转移效应,中间进口品成本上升,国民福利下降。面对波诡云谲的国际形势,中国应保持战略定力,对内深化改革,对外扩大开放,通过技术革新、产业结构调整等方式实现价值链地位攀升,依托“一带一路”倡议、自贸区建设等国家战略,积极参与和引领WTO改革和国际贸易投资协定谈判,逐步构建以中国为主导的“带路”价值链和区域价值链。

From the perspective of global value chain, this paper analyses the motivation, influence and countermeasures of the United States to initiate trade disputes with China. It holds that the direct cause of trade friction between China and the United States is the trade imbalance between China and the United States under the background of economic globalization, and the deep-seated reason is the conflict of political and economic interests between the two countries. Sino-US trade frictions will directly lead to the decline of Sino-US bilateral trade volume , impact on global supply chains and industrial chains, trigger trade and investment transfer effects, increase the cost of intermediate imports, and decline in national welfare. In the face of the international situation, China should maintain its strategic strength, deepen its internal reform, expand its opening wider to the outside world, upgrade its value chain through technological innovation and industrial restructuring. Relying on the Belt and Road Initiative and the establishment of free trade zones, it should actively participate in and lead WTO reform and international trade. Negotiation of investment agreements will gradually build China-led “ leading value chain” and regional value chain.