诺奖候选人学术影响、提名人身份与获奖概率

Candidate’s academic impact, nominator’s identity and the probability of awarding Nobel Prize

文章以1901-1950年诺贝尔物理学奖为例,从诺贝尔物理学奖候选人学术影响以及提名人身份两个方面研究诺贝尔奖候选人获奖概率的影响因素,采用生存分析法中的Kaplan-Meier分析法和Cox回归模型进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:在诺贝尔奖候选人的学术影响中,单篇最高被引频次越高,获得诺贝尔奖的概率越大,但是诺贝尔奖候选人的H指数值对其获得诺贝尔奖不具有显著作用;诺贝尔奖候选人的提名人身份是瑞典皇家科学院院士或诺贝尔委员会成员的数量越多,获奖概率越大,但提名人身份是诺贝尔奖得主,对诺贝尔奖候选人的获奖概率并无显著影响。

This article explores the factors influencing the Nobel Prize winning probability from the academic impact of the Nobel Prize nominees and the identity of the nominatorsbasedon the Nobel Prize in Physics from 1901 to 1950 as an example. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression model were used to test empirically. Research shows that the higher Nobel Prize nominee’s citations of highest cited paper in the academic influence is, the greater probability of winning a Nobel Prize becomes,while the Nobel Prize nominee’s H-index has no significant positive effect on winning Nobel Prize. The more Nobel’s nominator identities are the members of the Royal Society of Switzerland’s Royal Academy or the Nobel Committee, the greater the probability of nomineesareto win. While nominator identity is a former Nobel laureate and has no significant effect on the probability of winning a Nobel Prize.