失重的“压舱石”?经贸合作的“赫希曼效应”分析——以德俄关系与中德关系为比较案例

Weightless“Ballast”?The “Hirschmanesque Effect”in Economic and Trade Cooperation——Taking German-Russian Relations and China-German Relations as Comparative Cases

国家间的经贸联系与双边政治外交关系之间如何相互影响,一直是国际关系研究的重大理论问题。本文探讨了经贸联系产生"赫希曼效应"的因果机制。当贸易结构无法在贸易伙伴国国内形成愿意付出政治资本以代言本国利益的利益集团时,经贸合作将难以起到维持政治外交关系的"压舱石"作用,反之则相反。中国和俄罗斯同为德国的重要经贸合作伙伴,并且在政治制度和价值观等方面的差异都曾给双边政治关系造成冲击,但"赫希曼效应"促进了德俄关系的稳定,而在中德关系中却没有发挥明显的作用。经贸关系成为德俄双边政治关系中的"压舱石",而在中德之间却缺少一种防止双边关系出现剧烈震荡的机制或力量。

How the economic and trade relations between countries and bilateral political and diplomatic relations affect each other is always a topic of interest in international relations.This paper explores the causal mechanism of the"Hirschmanesque Effect"of economic and trade links,and argues that when the trade structure fails to produce interest groups in the trading partner countries,economic and trade cooperation can hardly serve as a"ballast"in bilateral political and diplomatic relations.China and Russia are important economic and trade partners of Germany,and their differences in political system and values have impacted bilateral political relations.However,the "Hirschmanesque Effect"has promoted the stability of German-Russian relations,while it has not played a significant role in China-German relations.Economic and trade relations have become the"ballast"in the bilateral political relations between Germany and Russia.But there is no mechanism to prevent sudden shocks in bilateral relations between China and Germany.