基于地理信息系统的淮安市食管癌发病时空统计分析

Spatiotemporal analysis of esophageal cancer incidence in Huai’an: a study based on geographic information system

目的探索淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布规律,确定淮安市食管癌发病的高发区域和低发区域,为进一步开展环境风险因子研究提供依据。方法收集2011-2015年淮安市分乡镇(街道)的食管癌发病及人口数据,采用全局空间自相关和局部异常值分析淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布规律,采用时空扫描统计探索食管癌的发病风险区。结果 2011-2015年淮安市食管癌平均发病率为67.12/10万,历年男性发病率均高于女性(均有P<0.001)。自相关分析显示,淮安市食管癌发病的空间分布呈明显聚集状态,存在局部热点和冷点地区。食管癌的高发聚集区位于淮安区、淮阴区和金湖县的部分乡镇,低发聚集区包括主城区的10个街道和盱眙县的部分乡镇,男女性的聚集区位置一致。结论淮安市食管癌发病存在空间聚集性,男女性食管癌的高发区位置相似,本研究结果可为食管癌多致病因子的研究奠定基础。

Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern, and identify risk cluster of esophageal cancer in Huai’an City so as to provide evidence for control and prevention of esophageal cancer. Methods Data of esophageal cancer incidence at township level in Huai’an City from 2011 to 2015 was collected. Spatial autocorrelation and local indications of spatial autocorrelation(LISA) were implemented to evaluate the spatial pattern of esophageal cancer incidence. Spatial scan statistics was used to examine spatio-temporal clustering of risk areas. Results The average incidence of esophageal cancer in Huai’an from 2011 to 2015 was 67.12/10 million, the incidence of male was significantly higher than that of female. The results of Moran’s I values implyed the spatial autocorrelation at township level. The results of LISA indicated that there were local hot spots and cold spots. The significant high-risk clusters included townships in Huai’an County, Huaiyin County and Jinhu County. The low-risk clusters were located in the main urban area and Xuyi County. Conclusions There are significant spatio-temporal aggregation for the distribution of incidence of esophageal cancer in Huai’an City and same spatiotemporal high-risk clusters between male and female. Our findings have a foundation to explore the multi-factorial etiology of esophageal cancer and have vital practical value for health services and policies implementation.