人民币汇率变动对中国水产品贸易影响的实证分析——以1992-2017年藻类产品贸易数据为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China’s Aquatic Products Trade: Taking the Data of Algae Products Trade from 1992 to 2017 as an Example

近年来,人民币汇率的变化一再成为国内外关注的焦点。汇率是国际贸易中的重要调整杠杆和抓手。人民币汇率的变动所带来的影响将不可避免地波及到中国产品的进出口贸易。本文选取1992-2017年的重要水产品(藻类产品)出口贸易及总产量的年度数据及汇率的年度数据,采用单位根检验,协整检验和状态空间模型,实证研究人民币实际汇率变化对中国藻类出口贸易的影响。状态空间模型可以获得汇率与出口之间影响的时变系数,这比静态模型更准确和真实。研究结果表明,人民币汇率与中国藻类产品出口贸易存在协整关系,人民币贬值可以刺激藻类产品的出口。研究人民币汇率变动对中国藻类产品贸易之间的关系,有利于将汇率制度做进一步的完善,根据人民币汇率变动对贸易的影响制定相应的贸易政策,同时尽可能避免汇率风险。

In recent years, changes in the RMB exchange rate have repeatedly become the focus of attention at home and abroad. The exchange rate is an important adjustment lever and a grasper in international trade. The impact of changes in the RMB exchange rate will inevitably affect the import and export trade of Chinese products. This paper selects the annual data of the export trade and total output of important aquatic products(algae products) from 1992 to 2017 and the annual data of the exchange rate. It uses the unit root test,cointegration test and state space model to empirically study the impact of RMB real exchange rate changes on China’s algae export trade The state space model can obtain the time-varying coefficient of the influence between the exchange rate and the exit, which is more accurate and true than the static model. The research results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the export trade of Chinese algae products. The depreciation of the RMB can stimulate the export of algae products. Studying the relationship between RMB exchange rate changes and China’s trade in algae products is conducive to further improving the exchange rate system, formulating corresponding trade policies based on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on trade, while avoiding exchange rate risks as much as possible.