土地供应结构失衡与中国城市住房价格——基于土地出让数据的分析

Imbalance of Land Supply Structure and Housing Price in Chinese Cities——Based on Land Transaction Records

本文研究了中国城市土地供应结构对商品房价格的影响。通过对全国270个地级市土地出让数据的计量分析发现,中国城市土地供应存在明显的"内部失衡"和"空间错配"。在城市内部,住宅用地、新增建设用地供应比例明显偏低。在空间分布上,一、二线城市的人均用地供应明显少于中小城市,东部地区的人均土地供应与其他地区相比受到更严格的限制。实证研究结果表明,城市人均"招拍挂"土地、人均住宅用地和商服用地的供应量对房价具有显著的负向影响,而供地总量对房价影响微弱;土地供应"空间错配"主要体现在不同层级的城市之间。

This paper investigates the impact of land supply structure of Chinese cities on the housing price.Through econometric analysis based on land transaction records of over 270 Chinese prefecture-level areas,it is found that there are significant imbalances of land supply in Chinese cities:intra-city imbalance and inter-city misallocation.The former refers to the low proportion of residential and incremental land supply,while the latter refers to per capita residential land supply is significant lower in the first-tier and the second-tier cities than in small cities,and per capita land supply is more restricted in eastern regions than in others.Empirical results reveal that the supply of"land remising(bidding,auction and listing)",per capita residential land and commercial land has significant negative relationship with the housing price,while the total amount of land supply has a negligible impact.Moreover,the spatial misallocation of land supply is mainly reflected in the cities of different levels.