出口贸易、地理特征与空气污染

Export, Geography Conditions and Air Pollution

全球价值链分工所致商品消费地和生产地分离是中国空气污染的重要原因,本文以2004—2013年中国274个地级市为样本,研究出口贸易对空气污染的影响以及地理特征对出口空气污染效应的作用。实证结果显示:出口贸易对空气污染存在显著正向影响,采用工具变量法控制可能的内生性问题后这一结论仍然成立。出口的空气污染效应在不同地理区位呈现显著异质性,海拔、气压、温度等地理气候条件对出口的空气污染效应起到重要调节作用,经济活动与空气污染的地理相关性使出口的空气污染效应被低估,预测中国通过经济和贸易质量升级治理空气污染的效果将好于预期。研究表明,中国必须转变服务外部市场的生产型增长模式和外贸模式以防治污染,西部地区应重点发展当地绿色产业以突破“胡焕庸线”,各级政府的产业规划应重视地理特征对产业发展和环境承载力的影响,空气污染的联防联控应从市级联合逐步过渡到省级联合。

The separation between the final consumption country and production country of commodities from GVC is an important reason for China’s air pollution. Based on panel data of 274 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2013, this paper studies the impact of export on air pollution and the impact of geography on the air pollution effects of export. The empirical results indicate that export has a significant positive impact on air pollution, and the results of IV still support the positive impact in consideration of endogeneity. The air pollution effects of export show significant heterogeneity in different areas. Geographic climatic conditions such as altitude, air pressure, temperature and so on can adjust the air pollution effects of export. The geographic correlations of economic activities and air pollution lead to the air pollution effects of export underestimated. The effectiveness of air pollution control through economic and trade quality upgrading will be better than expected. China has to transfer to new economic and export growth model based on quality and innovation for pollution abatement. Western Region of China should develop local green industries to break through the Hu-line. Government should emphasize the effects of geographical features on industry development and environmental capacity when planning. The joint prevention and control of air pollution should start from prefecture-level firstly and transfer to the provincial level gradually.