4种干旱指标在贵州省适用性的比较研究

Comparative Study on Applicability of Four Drought Indexes in Guizhou Province

基于1980—2013年贵州省气象站点逐日和逐月观测资料,利用标准化降水指数(SPI)、降水距平百分率(Pa)、相对湿润指数(MI)、K值(K)4种方法评估贵州省干旱状况,进而比较4种方法的适用性。结果表明:42a来SPI、Pa、MI指标的监测结果与春旱实际发生频次相似,而SPI、Pa指标的监测结果与夏旱实际发生频次接近。SPI和MI指标适用于全省春季和冬季干旱监测,Pa指标适用于夏季干旱监测,SPI和Pa指标适用于秋季干旱监测。干旱初期SPI、Pa、MI指标的区域干旱监测效果较好,干旱中期SPI、MI指标的区域干旱监测具有优势,干旱末期的区域监测可以考虑使用SPI、Pa指标。

This paper evaluated the drought by the method of standardized precipitation index (SPI),precipitation anomaly percentage (Pa),relative humidity index (MI),K value (K) based on daily and monthly observation data in Guizhou province from 1980 to 2013,and then compared the applicability of those four methods.Results showed that the monitoring results of SPI,Pa and MI are similar to actual occurrence frequency of spring drought while monitoring results of SPI and Pa are close to the actual occurrence frequency of summer drought.SPI and MI indexes are applicable to drought monitoring in spring and winter.Pa index is applicable to drought monitoring in summer,SPI and Pa indexes are applicable to drought monitoring in autumn.There is good effect for regional drought monitoring of SPI,Pa and MI indexes in early drought stage.There is advantage for regional drought monitoring of SPI and MI indexes in middle drought stage.SPI and Pa indexes could be used in regional drought monitoring in late stage.