基于Bass模型的4G用户数扩散研究

Research on 4G User Number Diffusion Based on Bass Model

目前4G仍是我国主流的通信技术,但随着5G正式商用的启动,4G可能会逐步进入产品生命周期的后半程,需要预测4G用户规模未来几年的发展状况,以便更好的制定市场策略。文章采用Bass扩散模型对4G用户扩散过程进行了参数估计,并根据模型模拟了我国4G用户的扩散过程,判断出目前4G用户数发展的速度开始下降,用户数增量有限,已进入存量经营阶段,预测结果也为今后5G用户扩散过程的研究提供了参考。

At present, 4G is still the mainstream communication technology in China, but with the formal commercial start of 5G, 4G may gradually enter the second half of the product life cycle. It is necessary to predict the development of 4G user scale in the next few years in order to better formulate the market strategy. In this paper, the parameters of 4G user diffusion process are estimated using Bass diffusion model, and the diffusion process of 4G users in China is simulated according to the model. It is concluded that the development speed of 4G users begins to decline and the increment of 4G users is limited. It has entered the stage of stock management, and the predicted results also provide a reference for the study of the diffusion process of 5G users in the future.