考虑居民选择行为的应急避难场所选址问题研究

Emergency Shelter Location Problem Considering Residents’ Choice Behavior

突发事件发生后,应急管理部门将面临选择启用哪些应急避难场所供居民避难的决策。与其它设施选址不同,处于有限理性状态下的居民可选择是否去避难以及去哪个避难所避难。为使未被服务的居民数量最小化,考虑居民的有限理性选择行为至关重要。为此,考虑居民避难距离及避难所吸引力等因素,基于竞争选址理论构建避难所对居民的效用函数。在此基础上,运用多项logit模型刻画居民的有限理性选择行为,建立基于有限理性选择行为的选址模型,并与基于效用最优选择行为和基于系统最优原则的选址模型进行对比以验证模型的合理性。为了高效地求解模型,设计了模拟退火算法和遗传算法两种启发式算法。算例分析结果验证了模型和算法的可行性和有效性,并揭示了居民理性程度、选址个数及财政预算均对选址结果有重要影响。

The emergency management department should decide which emergency shelters would be opened when emergency events occur. Unlike other facility location problems,residents with bounded rationality could choose whether to take refuge or not and which open shelter to go. In order to minimize the number of people who are not being served,it is important to consider the bounded rationality of the residents. To this end,a utility function is constructed based on the competition location theory considering the factors such as the refuge distance and the attraction of shelters. Under this circumstance,the multinomial logit model is used to describe the bounded rational choice behavior of residents,and an emergency shelter location model is established based on the bounded rational choice. Another two location models are proposed based on utility optimal choice and system optimal principle respectively to verify the reasonability of the bounded rational choice model. To solve the problems efficiently,two heuristic algorithms,simulated annealing algorithm and genetic algorithm are designed based on the characteristics of the model. The numerical results verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithms,and show that residents’ rational degree,the number of open shelters and the budget have a significant impact on the emergency shelter location decisions.