普京的外交政策

Going Legit? The Foreign Policy of Vladimir Putin

2018年5月,弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)第四次连任俄罗斯总统,确立了其在后苏联时代的主导地位。在接下来的六年里,俄罗斯的外交政策将会得以延续。而在莫斯科已经形成了广泛共识,即,俄罗斯外交政策取得了显著成功,已经成为一个强大的国家。尽管俄罗斯信心十足,但仍时常表现出谨慎甚至焦虑。在国际环境日渐动荡和不可预测的背景下,普京认识到战术灵活性的重要性。普京还深知俄罗斯外交政策收益的脆弱性以及可逆的可能性,因为在后美国的世界新秩序中,寻求成为规则制定者的俄罗斯面临诸多阻力。很显然,普京所展示的形象是复兴大国的铁腕人物、坚定的多边主义支持者,以及地区和全球问题的解决者。一些时候,莫斯科显得相对乐于助人,而其他时候,它又表现出武断,甚至带有攻击性。但普京坚定不移地追求其核心目标:巩固自己在国内的政治权威;助力俄罗斯成为一个不可或缺的大国,没有俄罗斯,世界就没有真正的安全。

Vladimir Putin's re-election for a fourth presidential term in May 2018 has enshrined his position as the dominant personality of the post-Soviet era.Over the next six years,there will be few major changes to Russian foreign policy.There is broad consensus in Moscow that this has been outstandingly successful,and that Russia has emerged as a formidable power. But alongside an overall sense of confidence,there is also caution and even anxiety.Putin recognizes the importance of tactical flexibility in an international environment that is increasingly fluid and unpredictable.He is also aware that Russia's foreign policy gains are fragile and potentially reversible,and that the country faces considerable obstacles in its quest to become a rule-maker in a new, post-American world order.Putin will aim to be all things to all people: strongman of a resurgent great power,committed multilateralist,and regional and global problem-solver.At times,Moscow will appear relatively accommodating. At other times,it will be assertive and even confrontational.But Putin will be unrelenting in the pursuit of core goals: the consolidation of political authority at home;and the promotion of Russia as an indispensable power,without whom there can be no real security in the world.