基于贡献率模型的管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标体系

Assessment index system of washout hazard of pipeline across-river based on contribution model

西南管道公司辖区内管道沿线地质环境条件复杂,地质灾害频发,由此导致的事故时有发生。以西南管道沿线119处典型河(沟)道水毁灾害为例,通过灾害影响因素分析,初步确定评价指标体系备选指标因子,利用贡献率模型,通过样本统计、分析,完成河(沟)道水毁灾害影响因子的因子间与因子内部敏感性分析。按照敏感性高低将影响因子划分为高敏感、中等敏感、低敏感三个级别。最终保留中等、高敏感因子中可以通过野外调查手段获取的洪水位变幅、岩土类型、土体状态、岸坡类型、河沟纵坡降、河沟道变形、河岸坡度等7个因子,作为油气管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标。

The geological condition of Petro China Southwest Pipeline crossing area is so complicated that geological disasters occurred frequently,and the pipeline accident caused by geological disasters often happened.Taking 119 typical across-river washout disasters along oil and gas pipelines as example,assessment index system alternative indexes was selected preliminarily through the analysis of disaster factors.Through the sample statistics and analysis,the intra-factor and inter-factor sensitivity analysis were completed with the contribution model.According to the sensitivity value,the factors were divided into three grades:high sensitive factors,medium sensitive factors,low sensitive factors.After that,factors of flood level luffing、flow velocity、formation lithology、soil states、bank form、river longitudinal grade、across-river deformation、bank slope,which can be obtained by field investigation and belong to high and medium sensitive factors,were reserved to build the assessment index system of pipeline across-river washout hazard.