中国钾盐消费规律与需求预测

The consumption rules and demand prediction of potash in China

钾盐是我国的紧缺矿种之一,从保障农业生产安全的战略角度出发,有必要对我国钾盐的中长期消费做出预测。本文对全球主要发达国家钾肥消费规律的研究表明,发达国家的人均钾肥消费量、单位耕地钾肥消费量和钾肥施用总量分别与人均GDP呈倒“S”形,具有明显的峰值特征。发达国家的钾肥施用总量轨迹可分为密集型、稀疏型和中间型三种。密集型国家国土面积中等,单位面积耕地钾肥施用量较大,人均GDP相对较低的11000~16000美元就达到钾肥消费的峰值;稀疏型国家国土面积较大,单位耕地面积钾肥施用量较低,单位耕地的粮食产量较低,人均GDP较高,19000~20000美元才达到钾肥消费的峰值;中间型国家国土面积较大,人口众多,为农业大国、强国,钾肥消费总量较高,人均GDP18000美元左右时达到钾肥消费的峰值。我国钾肥的消费特点属于中间型,在人均GDP达到18000美元时,将迎来钾盐消费的高峰,峰值约为1400万tK2O,时间在2025~2028年。

Potash is one of the scarce strategic mineral resources in China,it is necessary to make a prediction of the medium and long-term consumption of potash in China from a strategic point of view of maintaining the safety of agricultural production.The research on the potassic fertilizer consumption rules of major developed countries reveals that capita consumption of potassic fertilizer,consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and total amount of potassic fertilizer consumption show inverted“S”shape with capita GDP,which have obvious peak characteristics.The trajectories of total amount of potassic fertilizer consumption of developed countries can be divided into three types:intensive type,sparse type and intermediate type.The intensive type countries have medium land area and higher consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches$11 000-16 000.The sparse type countries have larger land area and lower consumption of potassic fertilizer per unit of arable land and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches$19 000-20 000.The intermediate countries have larger area and a large population.They are the largest agriculture countries and reach consumption peak when capita GDP reaches$18 000.China s consumption of potassic fertilizer is intermediate type and will reach consumption peak of potash when the capita GDP reaches$18 000.The peak value is about 14 million tons of K 2O per year,which will be from 2025 to 2028.