黄金中游产品国际贸易网络演化特征研究

Study on the evolution characteristics of international trade network of gold midstream products

黄金是中国战略性矿产资源之一,黄金中游产品国际贸易能反映产业链上下游国际供给关系及供给安全,战略意义重大。为了研究黄金中游产品国际贸易网络演化特征,本文利用2008~2017年的黄金中游产品国际贸易数据,基于复杂网络理论,构建了有向加权复杂网络模型,从贸易网络的整体结构特征、幂律分布特征、贸易枢纽国、核心国家识别等方面进行研究。结果显示,其贸易参与规模不断扩大,但贸易份额向少数国家集聚程度增加;美国、德国的贸易控制能力较强,处于贸易枢纽地位。通过研究,建议黄金中游产品贸易国通过观测美国、德国的黄金贸易趋势调整贸易量;瑞士、南非、美国是相关国家的首选贸易伙伴;澳大利亚、巴西和南非是拥有精加工能力但资源不足的国家建立贸易关系的首选。

Gold is one of China’s strategic mineral resources,and its international trade is related to supply security and strategic importance.Through the international trade of gold midstream products,it can reflect the upstream and downstream international supply relationship of the industrial chain.In order to study the evolution characteristics of the international trade network of gold midstream products,this paper constructs a directed weighted complex network model based on the complex network theory using the international trade data of gold midstream products from 2008 to 2017.We conduct research on the overall structural characteristics of trade networks,power law distribution characteristics,trade hub countries,and identification of core countries.The results show that the scale of trade participation is expanding,but the trade share is increasing to a few countries.The United States and Germany have strong trade control capabilities and they are in the trade hub.We recommend that the gold midstream product trading countries adjust their trade volume by observing the gold trade trends between the two countries through the research.Switzerland,South Africa and the United States are the preferred trading partners of the countries concerned.Australia,Brazil and South Africa are the first choice for establishing trade relations in countries with fine processing capabilities but insufficient resources.