摘要
基于统计学理论提出了一种复杂气井井筒完整性的量化评价方法,并进行了工程应用。在力学分析和失效评价的基础上,引入了统计学理论和可靠度计算方法对复杂气井井筒完整性进行全面的评价。基于中心点法推导了量化井筒完整性的可靠概率计算公式,并用Monte-Carlo法验证了其精度。通过建立“井筒完整性可靠概率”与“井筒完整性可靠性指标”之间的关系,给出了复杂气井井筒完整性的分级评价标准。研究表明:中心点法和Monte-Carlo法得到的T4井筒完整性可靠概率分别为0.8966和0.9106,井筒完整性的评价结果分别为“较可靠”和“很可靠”,证明了中心点方法精度良好。研究成果可为复杂气井井筒的设计、安全风险评价提供理论和方法支持。
Formulas of reliability of wellbore integrity are derived through central-point method and comparatively verified by the Monte-Carlo method.Built upon these formulas,relationship between“wellbore integrity reliability probability(WIRP)”and“wellbore integrity reliability index(WIRI)”is established and expatiated.On this basis,the applicability and accuracy of the proposed method is verified by case of T4.The results show that the WIRP of T4 is 0.8966 and the integrity grade is“minor reliable”using the proposed method in this dissertation,while the WIRP of T4 is 0.9106 and the integrity grade is“reliable”using Monte-Carlo method.It is proved that the evaluation method proposed herein is accurate and relatively conservative which is more suitable for practical application.The achievements of this dissertation are expected to provide the guidance for the design and safety evaluation of gas wells.
作者
刘铭刚
王廷春
李勇
逄铭玉
万古军
LIU Minggang;WANG Tingchun;LI Yong;PANG Mingyu;WAN Gujun(Sinopec Research Institute of Safety Engineering,Qingdao 266100,China;State Key Laboratory of Safety and Control for Chemicals, Sinopec Research Institute of Safety Engineering,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2019年第10期168-174,共7页
China Mining Magazine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目资助(编号:51804330)