福建省城市扩张与经济增长的互动关系研究

RESEARCH ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN URBAN EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

基于2000~2015年福建省9个设区市的城市建成区面积与非农GDP的历史数据,根据生态位理论将9个设区市分为4个等级,结合库兹涅兹曲线分析、协整检验及Granger因果关系分析、脱钩分析3种方法对不同等级城市之间的城市扩张和经济发展的互动关系进行了研究。研究表明:福建省城市生态位呈现东高西低,南高北低的空间格局;9个设区市均符合广义的库兹涅兹曲线关系,但只有高生态位城市全部符合倒“U”型曲线关系;福建省多数城市用地扩张与经济增长之间的Granger因果关系受区位、政策和决策等因素影响并不明显;福建省9个设区市的脱钩关系主要呈现为增长负脱钩、弱脱钩、强脱钩和增长连接4类,绝大多数城市多数时期以弱脱钩状态为主。

Based on the historical data of urban built-up area and non-agricultural GDP of nine districts and cities in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015,nine districts and cities are divided into four grades according to niche theory.Combining Kuznets curve analysis,cointegration test,Granger causality analysis and decoupling analysis,this paper studies the interaction between urban expansion and economic development in different levels of cities.The results show that the urban niche of Fujian Province is high in the East and low in the west,and high in the South and low in the north.Nine districts and cities all conform to the generalized Kuznets curve,but only high niche cities all conform to the inverted“U”curve.The Granger causality between urban expansion and economic growth in Fujian Province is not significantly affected by location,policy and decision-making.The decoupling relationships of nine districts and cities in Fujian Province are mainly negative growth decoupling,weak growth decoupling,strong growth decoupling and growth connectivity,most cities are mainly weak growth decoupling in most periods.