基于齐当别理论的公交出行决策选择反转

Bus Travel Choice Reversals Based on the Equate-to-Differentiate Theory

选择反转是交通行为中的一种悖论现象,未能通过实验的谨慎误差控制得到良好解释.本研究从决策心理学的角度,基于齐当别理论建立起选择支属性的判断维度体系,在确定、不确定以及风险条件下进行了3种公交出行决策场景的心理实验.实验结果中匹配任务的效应分析说明,齐当别理论的侦测性占优原则可对出行方式选择进行解释;选择一致性的重测信度分析说明,出行者对交通方式属性维度的判断是可变过程;选择和匹配一致性分析说明,选择变异随匹配任务中的维度判断的改变而产生.总体上,3组实验选择反转的变化特征趋势符合实验设计框架,齐当别模型的解释在3组实验中均表现出显著一致性,能够对出行方式的选择反转进行预测和解释,即当出行者采取不同的齐同策略时,重复选择中令人费解的反转悖论现象便会出现.

Choice reversal is a paradox phenomenon in traffic behavior,and it can not be well explained through error cautious control.From the perspective of decision psychology,the judgment dimension system of option attributes,and carries out three groups of psychological experiments in different bus travel decision situation was established based on the equate-to-differentiate theory.Through the matching task,it was confirmed that choice can be explained under the equate-to-differentiate interpretation.Through the retest reliability analysis for choice consistency,it was proved that the judgment for dimension is variable.Through the retest reliability analysis for choice and matching consistency,it was proved that choice reversals are caused by the change of the dimension judgment in matching task.The equate-to-differentiate interpretation shows good consistency in the three groups of experiments.The judgment dimension system can predict and explain the travel choice reversal.That is,the inexplicable paradox occurs when diverse equate-to-differentiate strategy is used.